The evening of 8 February the central bank announced the first interest rate increase this year, since February 9 from financial institutions raised the benchmark deposit and lending rates. One-year deposit and lending rates by 0.25 percentage points, respectively. One-year deposit rate from 2.75% to 3%, one-year lending rate raised to 5.81% from the 6.06%.
from the also apparent in the first quarter and first half of this year CPI may remain high, interest rates are still possible in the first quarter, and because the quantitative tools of great impact liquidity in the banking, financing of total social control task may be more major interest rate adjustment of the price falls tool.
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Lida Xiao Ying Tai Securities Research Institute that , the central bank to raise interest rates on a short-term impact on the stock market after the holiday, but the large-cap stocks in absolute low, the stock market still has a chance to pick up gradually.
response to inflation and negative interest rates
Director Liu Yuhui said.
Lida Xiao said the rate hike is for inflation. He estimated the C PI in January may be similar to last year in November, when the CPI hit a high of 28 months at 5.1%.
Liu Yuhui think that may be on the January CPI 6%. January hikes of 3.6 percentage points last year, prices of factors of the new 4.6 percentage points, a factor in new price should not fall too much, fell 3 percentage points below the vicinity of CPI in January will be close to 6 percentage points.
Liu Yuhui, said negative interest rates has been so long, the same strain of negative interest rates and inflation, negative interest rates have flattened, so that the entire economy, after the formation of the real cost of capital, inflation levels to drop. Optical quantitative tools can not achieve good results, the effectiveness has been exhausted. In addition, the storage potential rate increase too much tension will lead to bank liquidity, the central bank before the holiday had to put money through the open market, will be absorbed by deposit money back into the standard rate bank. While raising the deposit reserve ratio for bank credit capacity constraints, but the savings can still flow from the bank, which will push up prices. Start checking the interest rate adjustment
other period comprehensive benchmark deposit and lending interest rates point of view, this asymmetry is deposit and loan interest rates. In addition to the one-year time deposits, other short-term and long-term time deposit interest rate increase between the range of 0.3-0.45 percentage points, the longest of the five-year deposit rate from 4.55% to 5% on, raised 0.45 percentage points. Loan interest rates in the range of 0.2-0.25 percentage points more than five years lending rate from 6.4% to 6.6%, only increased 0.2 percentage points.
In addition, the current deposit interest rates 0.04 percentage point increase, from 0.36% to 0.4%. When the last rate hike the central bank does not adjust the current deposit interest rates.
Liu Yuhui said the central bank to raise interest rates for deposits and loans of asymmetric strategy is clear, focused into the solution of negative interest rates.
asymmetric deposit and lending rates to raise interest rates on time deposits corresponding to loans, savings and loan spreads narrowed, but the high proportion of bank demand deposits, demand deposits, the interest rates increase, although the increase rate small, but also inhibited the expansion of bank spreads.
Li Daxiao that lending and deposit interest rates cause spreads narrow asymmetric, greater assurance that the interests of depositors. the expected future CPI, Liu Yuhui that in the first quarter and first half of the CPI will remain high, the opportunity to close a number between 6-7 percentage points. March may touch a high of 6 to July is also possible that a high point, as the two time periods hikes high, in the first half hikes from 2.4 to 3.7 percentage points, plus the new price factors , CPI will remain high.
Li Daxiao that this year will be controlled within 4% CPI, but the beginning and first half of the CPI will run high. Interest rates may be concentrated in the first half of last year's two interest rate increase will be a little more. But the central bank's tightening policy is not comprehensive, the small probability of hyperinflation.
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