Four coal industry, two bad good PK

 Coal industry: four good PK two bad
2008   04   26   16:50 Source: Securities Times of: Lu Ping Wang Peipei
of the four positive
industry first, coking coal prices rose the most optimistic about our coking coal .2008 sub-sectors. into 2008, the coking coal price increase far exceeded our expectations, Linfen, Shanxi coking coal and coking coal are the main Liulin the end of 2007 rose 310 yuan higher than / t and 190 yuan / ton to 1,250 yuan / ton and 620 yuan / ton. The price of coking coal in 2008 listed the number of 1-3 times, price 300-390 yuan / ton, price increase of 40-50%.
theoretical calculations, substantial price increases for coking coal, coking coal thickening performance of the company significantly (only added tax, income tax, not consider the incremental cost), which Pingmei Cheonan, Taurus energy shares and the Western Hills Kailuan thickening of the theoretical performance of coal was 0.79 yuan / share, 0.76 yuan / share, 0.7 yuan / share and 0.76 yuan / share, thickening rate was 76%, 106%, 64% and 89%. taking into account the coal market the company's cost growth, we expect Pingmei Cheonan, Taurus energy, Kailuan shares and the actual performance of Xishan Coal and Electricity in 2008 were 2.25 yuan / share, 1.65 yuan / share, 1.97 yuan / share and 1.62 yuan / share, respectively, an increase of 118%, 129%, 79% and 88%.
Secondly, the export price of coal rose .2008 is expected to export the new fiscal year, coal prices will be signed in 4-5 months. It is reported that in March, Japan, Australia and dynamic signed a single contract coal price is 130 U.S. dollars / ton. Japanese power companies and the Chinese coal exporters have started on April 1 of fiscal year 2008, an initial contract price of coal per ton $ 108, compared with the benchmark 2007 Price $ 67.9 / tonne in January rose 59% .3, Japan and Australia signed a single new coking coal export price of 300 dollars, the export price of coking coal in China is expected to reach 250-300 dollars / ton, compared with fiscal 2007 domestic export prices $ 98 up 155-206%.
Third, thermal coal contract prices may also rise. domestic and international market price of coal rose after the snowstorm depressed coal thermal coal contracts have price increases. According to media reports: The current Shanxi Lu'an Group, Yangquan, Datong Coal Mine Group, Coking Coal Group and a number of local coal mines have been proposed price increases, the average increase of 30-50 yuan per ton.
us to judge the proposed price increases for three reasons: One is a significant price increase after the price of coking coal, thermal coal expansion of its spread, the spread between the 590 from the end of 2007 yuan / ton increase to the current 840 yuan / ton; the other is the stock rose sharply after 2008, the contract Spot coal prices and spreads further expand; The third is to expand the international spread.
the implementation of the short-term coal linkage are less likely to contract thermal coal prices rise again to political pressure is large (the only rational way of coal enterprises is to reduce the coal contract fulfillment rate, extensive use of spot sales, cheap price of contract coal will have no market, which gradually push the contract coal prices rise). recommended coal linkage close attention to policy implementation and contract thermal coal prices rose. < br> Fourth, the assets may be substantial progress into the coal stocks rose .2007 is one of the important reasons for asset injection, but subject to a variety of policy constraints, in 2007 none of the assets into a single place. With increase the capital of gold and other mining rights in the gradual implementation of the policy, we determine the asset injection in 2008 may have a substantive progress. short term, largely of asset injection. the long run, will lead the overall market size and performance of listed companies present outbreak type growth. If the pioneer of the program is reasonable, will re-ignite the enthusiasm of the market for asset injection.
negative impact of the two major industry
First, the pre-Qinhuangdao coal prices rose rational return. snowstorm, Qinhuangdao coal prices From January to 560 yuan / ton in mid-February rose to 675 yuan / ton, which is in history there has never been a large increase (Qinhuangdao coal prices less volatile, the general volatility during the year 30-50 yuan / ton). far exceed our 2008 strategy report predicted 550-580 yuan / ton price range. to protect the electricity supply, the state has increased rail transport of coal power, leading to the recent sales of Qinhuangdao coal inventory (current inventory reached 7.51 million tons, up 2.265 million tons compared with the end of 2007, an increase of 43%). coupled with the advent of steam coal off-season, Qinhuangdao coal prices began to return to the rational, Datong excellent mix from the February high of 675 yuan / ton callback to the current 640 yuan / ton, callback 35 yuan / ton, we judge may call back to 600 yuan / ton (even that will exceed our 2008 price forecast upper limit).
transit Qinhuangdao coal prices reflect the spot price of thermal coal , while the majority of listed companies signed a contract price of coal. Qinhuangdao coal prices rose early, listed companies basically do not benefit. Similarly, the recent coal price correction, the performance of listed companies basically do not suffer. Qinhuangdao coal price correction does not constitute a substantial negative, more of a psychological impact of stock market investors.
Secondly, resources tax and the implementation of the Sustainable Development Fund. resource tax reform, changed from the previous amount of ad valorem levy from ad valorem levy ratio is around 3-5%, 3% of the industry is expected to possibility. volume of previously collected from ad valorem levy equivalent to 1%, to 3% ad valorem levy equivalent to 2% increase in the cost price, according to 2007 coal prices increased by about mid-estimated the cost of 8 yuan / ton. Shanxi Province has implemented a policy of cost three, tons of coal cost the provinces more than 29-35 yuan / ton. In addition, we believe that the government imposed the most sustainable development fund may lead to the country in 2008 (the first anniversary of the pilot).
issued two policies do affect the profits of coal enterprises, but in the case of coal rose, basically able to fully cover the policy costs. greater impact on the thermal coal business (2007 signing of the power coal prices rose 30-50 yuan / ton), little effect on the coking coal business (coking coal in 2008 have risen 300-390 yuan / ton). due to the current supply and demand of coal situation is tight, if introduced, may lead to power coal price (as already discussed the reasons for thermal coal price increases business requirements). taking into account the cost-push coal prices rise again a greater impact on electricity companies, when the introduction of two policies is still there is no timetable.
better view of the current coal industry fundamentals and valuations are not expensive, and we continue to maintain industry recommended investment rating. for the specific listed companies, should be noted that essentially the coal stocks Pudie broad based, industry-chance opportunities than individual stocks. (investment securities)